Don’t Bother Catching Falling Knife Affirm Stock Just Yet

4 months ago 28

Things went from blistery to acold rapidly astatine Affirm (NASDAQ:AFRM). After hitting a $139 highest successful February, AFRM banal has dropped implicit 50%. The banal has been fundamentally successful escaped autumn since that peak.

Part of this plummet is owed to capitalist sentiment. Tech names that thrived during past year’s lockdowns are taking a backseat to stocks that basal to summation from reopening. But looking closer, determination are cardinal concerns that proceed to spell occupation for this stock.

Specifically, Affirm’s precocious operating losses and indebtedness defaults, coupled with expanding competition, awesome much occupation ahead. Then there’s the stock’s valuation, which, contempt a monolithic haircut — still trades astatine a pricey 25x guardant income — a premium to outgo elephantine Paypal (NASDAQ:PYPL).

While Affirm is the champion sanction successful the space, I’d hold for a amended introduction constituent successful the stock. Here’s why.

AFRM Stock: The New Digital Wallet

Launched by Paypal co-founder and erstwhile CTO Max Levchin successful 2012, AFRM is present 1 of the apical 3 players globally successful the bargain now, wage aboriginal (BNPL) sub-sector of payments. The institution has attracted attraction for its popularity among young shoppers, who walk an expanding magnitude of wealth online. Young radical successful peculiar are slower to walk with recognition cards, but person been aboriginal BNPL adopters, seeing it arsenic a much budget-conscious and transparent spending method.

Affirm’s worth proposition is simple: the institution offers a much flexible alternate to accepted recognition cards. Affirm’s lending merchandise integrates with e-commerce sites and allows shoppers to wage for goods implicit clip successful fixed installments. Depending connected the full walk and indebtedness duration (usually 3, 6 oregon 12 months), customers wage betwixt a 0% and 15% mean yearly involvement rate. Other perks: Customers tin spot however overmuch a indebtedness volition outgo successful dollar terms.

The institution doesn’t complaint precocious fees oregon compound involvement emblematic of accepted recognition paper lenders (although missed payments tin impact recognition scores).

As a BNPL player, Affirm makes wealth successful 2 ways: it collects transaction fees from merchants (estimated astatine 2-3%) and involvement connected financing from purchasers. Merchants wage Affirm’s fees due to the fact that installment plans entice customers to marque bigger summons purchases, boost bid volumes and thrust repetition purchases. AFRM lawsuit Peloton (NASDAQ:PTON), for example, offers a near-$1,900 workout motorcycle for $49 a month, with 0% interest.

The Dark Side: Debt Defaults

BNPL, which comprised lone 2% of planetary e-commerce income successful 2019, is simply a monolithic untapped market, expected to top $680 cardinal globally successful 2025. But portion the aboriginal looks agleam for AFRM stock, determination are immoderate acheronian sides to the story.

The archetypal acheronian side? Default risk.

Affirm is fundamentally a lender, truthful its underwriting standards are important to the company’s profitability. Affirm lone generates 1 to 3 cents of gross borderline per $1 of lending, leaving precise small borderline for error.

Affirm hasn’t been operating done a afloat recognition rhythm and if the institution writes loans to the incorrect people, it could proceed to endure large losses. BNPL users aren’t those with the champion credit.

In fact, Reuters reports that “[n]early 40% of U.S. consumers who utilized ‘buy now, wage later’ person missed much than 1 payment, and 72% of those saw their recognition people decline.” There’s besides grounds to suggest that 40% of BNPL users are turning to these alternatives “because they couldn’t get entree to accepted recognition — either due to the fact that they’ve maxed retired their recognition bounds oregon due to the fact that of a mediocre oregon non-existent recognition history.”

These losses are evident successful the numbers, which are going successful the incorrect direction. Affirm’s Allowance for Credit Losses accrued from $85.9 cardinal to $131 million during the company’s astir caller quarter.

Downmarket Competition

Affirm faces a 2nd challenge: competition.

Right now, the institution is the person successful the precocious AOV (Average Order Value) conception of the BNPL market, bolstered by its long-standing narration with Peloton for bikes and treadmills. But, to scope its semipermanent goals, Affirm indispensable pat into a precise crowded marketplace for debased AOV transactions.

Not lone bash giants similar Paypal, American Express (NYSE:AXP) and Alliance Data Systems (NYSE:ADS) play successful this space, but truthful bash different BNPL companies similar Afterpay (OTCMKTS:AFTPY), Zip Co (OTCMKTS:ZIZTF) and Splitit Payments (OTCMKTS:STTTF), arsenic good arsenic a fistful of privately held companies similar Quadpay and Klarna.

Not lone is contention intense, but it’s hard to spot that Affirm has immoderate sustainable advantage. Competitors are already gathering strategical partnerships to drawback marketplace share. Zip, for example, partnered with Visa (NYSE:V) to springiness customers a integer BNPL card. It’s efficaciously a recognition paper with a debased maximum bounds of $1,500 positive each the BNPL benefits similar debased (or zero) involvement charges.

And portion Affirm isn’t lasting inactive (the institution plans to rotation retired an Affirm Card aboriginal successful 2021), neither is the competition. Major Australian banks person begun to rotation retired low-interest recognition cards with overmuch higher recognition limits. PayPal is rolling retired a “Pay successful 4” BNPL work adjacent period to 9 cardinal Australian customers.

For Affirm, accrued contention means profitability metrics could get worse. Paypal, for example, charges a precise competitory 2.9% interest for merchants, though it doesn’t connection longer-term installment plans and limits buying carts to $600. Afterpay charges the merchant a percent interest based connected the transaction value, and the user lone pays fees if they’re precocious connected their payments. With margins already razor-thin, the timing to profitability is precise uncertain.

Affirm Has More Distance to Fall

AFRM banal is the champion publically traded pure-play connected BNPL, successful my opinion. And there’s nary uncertainty that the BNPL marketplace has the imaginable to seizure an expanding portion of the payments space.

But portion Affirm has capable moving superior to screen its losses, the company’s way to profitability isn’t clear. Intensifying contention volition complicate timing. The valuation for Affirm banal is different issue.

Today, AFRM trades astir $60, which is inactive astir 22% supra its $49 IPO price. Even astatine AFRM’s dramatically reduced $16 cardinal marketplace capitalization, that’s a aggregate of 25x guardant income — a monolithic premium to Paypal, astatine 11x sales. You tin besides comparison that to Social Capital Hedosophia Holdings (NYSE:IPOE), whose fintech merger target, SoFi, is expected to commercialized astatine astir 20x revenue.

Longer term, I deliberation this institution has potential. But with the institution reporting net results connected May 10, there’s nary request to unreserved in. Wait for a amended introduction constituent successful AFRM stock.

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